Behind the cocoa price surge: what’s driving it - and how data can help
Global cocoa future contract prices have more than doubled in the last two years - hitting record highs and causing ripple effects across the food supply chain. Behind the spike? Poor harvests driven by extreme weather, disease outbreaks, and degraded soil conditions. These aren’t isolated problems but rather symptoms of a growing global vulnerability in cocoa supply chains.
Why this matters
Cocoa farmers, particularly smallholders in West Africa and Latin America, are facing mounting challenges: erratic rainfall, prolonged dry seasons, fungal diseases like black pod, and aging tree stock. These issues are often invisible until it’s too late leading to widespread crop failure and volatile global supply.
Traders, processors, insurers, and lenders lack timely, field-level visibility to anticipate such risks. The result: uncertainty, underinvestment, and a fragile market increasingly prone to price shocks.
How Arbolitics can help
Arbolitics' satellite-powered crop intelligence platform provides real-time, farm-level monitoring that enables earlier intervention, smarter investment, and more resilient supply chains.
Key tools for cocoa supply chain stakeholders:
Anomaly Detection: Spot irregular canopy development or pest stress before harvests suffer
Field Uniformity Monitoring: Identify zones of uneven growth caused by disease or poor soil health.
Climate Risk Forecasting: Track rainfall trends, heat spikes, and humidity to predict fungal risk windows and when unplanned irrigation is needed.
Yield Forecasting: Use historical and current vegetation indices to estimate production levels with confidence.
What this unlocks
For Lenders & Insurers: Lower credit and insurance risk by understanding local conditions early. Offer better terms to farmers who demonstrate strong field health.
For Buyers & Traders: Anticipate yield fluctuations regionally. Secure supply through smarter sourcing and price planning.
For Governments & NGOs: Target support to vulnerable farmers and regions showing signs of degradation or drought stress.
What this unlocks
The recent cocoa futures price surge is not just a market anomaly, but a signal of broader climate and agronomic instability. With Arbolitics, agricultural stakeholders no longer have to fly blind. Data-driven foresight enables action before a crisis hits - protecting supply, stabilizing prices, and supporting farmers where it matters most.
Get in touch with us to explore how Arbolitics can support your work.